2034: Diabetes Cases to Double, Costs to Triple – Finding Lasting Solutions

THIS ARTICLE PUBLISHED DEC 4 ON GOOGLE NEWS TOP STORIES OF THE DAY, BASIL AND SPICE.COM, TMC NEWS, APRIA HEALTH, AND OTHER ONLINE NEWS SITES

Astronomically high health care costs in the U.S. have been a matter of ongoing concern for some time now.  The debates surrounding the question of  how best to control these costs have often shed more heat than light on this issue, which is indeed one of the most volatile of all in the health-care arena today.  Why?  Perhaps one reason there is more heat than light on this issue is that hard numbers continue to testify to the steadily rising rates of deadly chronic diseases in the U.S. (as well as the West in general).  As a consequence, not only current but also projected increases in disease rates for certain conditions overwhelm even “smart moves” to bring health-care costs under control.  A University of Chicago study published in the December 2009 issue of Diabetes Care serves to prove this point perfectly. 

According to this new study, in the next 25 years – i.e. By 2034, the number of Americans with diabetes will nearly double to 44.1 million, and the costs of treating these individuals will triple – rising from $113 billion annually to $336 billion.  As staggering as these numbers may seem, what is truly disturbing about them is that the researchers projecting them consider these predictions “very conservative” for the following reasons:

• These numbers do not account for the rapidly growing population of overweight children and teenagers – all of whom represent a high risk group for developing diabetes.
• They do not factor in immigration or the rising population of ethnic minorities that suffer diabetes at higher rates than the US population as a whole.
• Prior estimates from studies vis-a-vis the rise in diabetes in the population have previously predicted dramatic rates of increase of this disease in the US – but in each case, the acutal number of diabetes cases have ended up being larger than the estimates.

A TRUE CONUNDRUM OR ARE WE MISSING THE BOAT?

As a researcher, I am continuously face-to-face with emerging chronic disease statistics; As a speaker on chronic disease prevention and controlling health-care costs, I am continuously in touch with everyday people (both lay and academic) as well as those in the Corporate world dealing with staggering health-care challenges.  The obvious facts that emerge, from both rigorous academic research and my real-life interactions with those dealing with diabetes, are simply these:

1.  About 90% of individuals with diabetes have type 2 diabetes – a condition that develops over a period of time. 

2.  The most common (and preventable) risk factor for type 2 diabetes is simply being overweight.

3.  Research suggests unequivocally that nutritional and lifestyle changes – when followed diligently – can lower the risk of diabetes by 58%, even without medication.

4.  Most people – when they are made aware of how truly difficult and deadly a condition chronic diabetes can be – are motivated to take better care of themselves to make the necessary lifestyle changes to prevent or even reverse this condition.

HEALTH-CARE COSTS CANNOT BE CONTROLLED WITHOUT ADDRESSING PRIMARY CAUSES

Diabetes, and several other preventable chronic diseases, will continue to remain unresolvable conundrums in the US and the West until we become willing to acknowledge and address the true underlying Primary Causes of such conditions.  In the case of diabetes, I believe there are primarily three reasons why numbers for this condition continue to rise in the US:

1)  A re-active approach to treating diabetes after it occurs, rather than a pro-active approach to preventing it in the first place to the extent it is possible to do so;

2)  Widespread use of Industrialized and highly processed foods as foundational foods among the large majority of the population, combined with high stress and largely sedentary lifestyles for most people; and

3)  A lack of systematic utilization of gains made in epidemiological nutritional research (that indeed does constructively bring to surface the Primary Causes of diabetes) for the practical effect of improving health, both individually and socially.  

A one-line summary of the 3 reasons above would be that we (both as individuals and as “A System”) are at present not fully utilizing or taking advantage of the scientific knowledge we do have to pro-actively prevent diabetes.  Type 2 diabetes is one of the most preventable of major chronic diseases.  While it is true that we may not be able to slash ALL costs related to diabetes-care through pro-active prevention efforts, the reality nevertheless remains that if want to see solid, long-term results – both in controlling costs and improving our health – we have no choice but to addressing the Primary Causes of this disease.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Needless to say, addressing the causes of diabetes is an extensive topic – one that will be addressed in my upcoming book.  For now, please refer to another recent post on the issue of addressing Primary Causes.  The bottom line message of the current post and the one you are being referred to is this – Lasting solutions to the chronic disease crisis in the US lie in addressing the underlying and ongoing true causes of disease in the population.  Anything short of doing so is “band-aid” therapy – guaranteed both to increase disease and health-care costs in the long run, regardless of who pays or how.